Current Dynamics

International trade has entered a phase of structural instability. Traffic through the Suez Canal has decreased by 70% in two years due to tensions in the Red Sea. Ships forced to circumnavigate Africa take up to ten days longer to reach Europe, with fuel and insurance costs estimated to increase between 15% and 20%. At the same time, the Panama Canal is affected by chronic drought: the number of daily transits has been reduced and the cargo capacity per ship lowered. The combination of these factors makes global logistics more expensive and less predictable, increasing the working capital tied up in inventory.

On a macro level, the International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of around 3% for 2025. This represents a modest recovery, lower than historical rates, and subject to continuous political risks. World trade is also expected to grow by 3% in 2025 according to the WTO, following the stagnation of 2023. It is a recovery, but not a normalization: political fragmentation and protectionism are now permanent factors, not exceptions.

Another disruptive element is military spending. In 2024, it reached $2.718 trillion, the highest level ever recorded, with an increase of 9.4% in a single year. The United States, China, and Russia are leading the increase, but Europe, the Middle East, and South Asia have also accelerated investments. This trend has two consequences: it reduces the resources available for other public priorities and creates a growing demand for dual-use goods (technologies and components usable in both civil and military fields), directly involving private companies.

The energy landscape is moving at multiple speeds. Global gas demand will grow by only 1.3% in 2025, slowed by the European transition and the increase in renewables. In Asia, however, demand continues to rise, and long-term supply contracts are shifting toward “safe” countries such as Qatar and the United States. This means that companies should expect more regionalized energy markets, with divergent prices and greater risks of local volatility.

Finally, foreign direct investment has lost momentum. In 2023, it stalled at $1.3 trillion, down 2% from the previous year. Multinationals, driven by governments and shareholders, are adopting friend-shoring policies, favoring allied countries and reducing exposure to jurisdictions perceived as risky. This trend is redrawing global industrial maps: sectors such as semiconductors, batteries, and digital infrastructure are concentrating in a few hubs considered “politically reliable.”

Risks

1. 1. • Logistics. With Suez and Panama in difficulty, longer transport times and higher costs undermine the competitiveness of companies heavily dependent on imports and just-in-time delivery. In particular, sectors operating on low margins, such as retail and certain industrial supply chains, are seeing transport costs grow as a significant share of the final price. This forces a review of contracts, suppliers, and warehouse policies.
      • Politics and trade. The 3% growth forecast for world trade is fragile and could evaporate if new tariffs or trade disputes were to erupt. Even today, “policy uncertainty” is very high: elections in the United States, tensions between China and the West, and conflicts in the Middle East create unpredictable scenarios. Global companies can no longer rely on stable rules and must assume that the environment will remain highly variable.
      • Military and security spending. The increase in defense investment creates pressure on public budgets: more resources allocated to weapons means less availability for civil infrastructure, education, and healthcare. For businesses, this can translate into higher taxes or a reduction in public spending in relevant areas. At the same time, the arms race fuels geopolitical risks that affect financial markets and investor confidence.
      • Energy and finance. The regionalization of gas means less uniform prices: a European company will pay very different costs compared to an Asian competitor. This generates competitive disadvantages and uncertainty in industrial plans. On the financial front, the reduction in FDI and the fragmentation of investment forces many companies to choose between more limited opportunities, accepting stricter conditions or lower returns.

Opportunities

• • • Restructuring of supply chains. Companies that are introducing “distance risk” metrics, evaluating not only cost but also the distance and vulnerability of routes, are able to prevent blockages and stabilize costs. Many companies have already diversified suppliers and warehouses, reducing exposure to Suez or Panama and transforming logistics into a competitive advantage.
    • Pricing and commercial contracts. With the volatility of freight and energy, companies that integrate automatic adjustment clauses into contracts are able to protect margins and maintain customer trust. More advanced companies are already using dynamic pricing models linked to transport indices or fuel prices.
    • Public spending on defense and security. Even if it reduces resources elsewhere, it creates a growing demand for critical technologies: cybersecurity, digital infrastructure, dual-use systems, and resilient energy. For suppliers capable of adapting, these sectors offer new revenue streams and strategic partnerships.
    • Energy front. Moderate growth in gas opens a window to renegotiate long-term contracts and diversify supply portfolios. Companies that adopt advanced hedging strategies and flexible mixes can reduce exposure to local price peaks.
    • Selective foreign investment. This creates opportunities for concentration. Countries perceived as “reliable” are strengthening incentive packages to attract capital in key sectors such as semiconductors, green tech, and advanced manufacturing. For companies ready to move, this means access to subsidies, dedicated infrastructure, and more stable markets.

Conclusion

The world is entering a phase where economic growth and international trade can no longer be taken for granted. Maritime routes are fragile, political risks are high, and energy markets are fragmented. At the same time, defense spending and the redefinition of foreign investment are rewriting the rules of the game.

Companies that can interpret these dynamics not only to protect themselves but to transform them into proactive strategies—by redesigning supply chains, innovating pricing, and investing in strategic sectors—will have a decisive competitive advantage. In a more unstable world, resilience becomes a form of growth.